Realities

  • Global energy demand declined by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020.
  • Global coal demand was hit the hardest, falling by almost 8% compared with the first quarter of 2019.
  • Oil demand was also hit strongly, down nearly 5% in the first quarter, mostly by curtailment in mobility and aviation, which account for nearly 60% of global oil demand.
  • Renewables were the only source that posted a growth in demand, driven by larger installed capacity and priority dispatch.
  • Electricity demand has been depressed by 20% or more during periods of full lockdown in several countries.
  • Demand reductions have lifted the share of renewables in the electricity supply, as their output is largely unaffected by demand.

Predictions:

  • Oil demand could drop by 9%, Coal demand could decline by 8%, in large part because electricity demand will be nearly 5% lower over the course of the year.
  • Renewables demand is expected to increase because of low operating costs and preferential access to many power systems.
  • Global CO2 emissions are expected to decline by 8%, or almost 2.6 gigatonnes (Gt), to levels of 10 years ago.
  • Low-carbon sources would far outstrip coal-fired generation globally, extending the lead established in 2019.

Details: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020