On December 12, 2015, a new international climate agreement was adopted – Paris
Agreement. On April 22, 2016, 175 countries, including Ukraine, signed the Paris Agreement
at a solemn ceremony.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine ratified the Paris Agreement on July 14, 2016.
The aim of the Paris Agreement is to strengthen the global fight against the threat of climate
change in order to curb the rise in temperature on the planet to a level significantly below 2
degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.
Under the Paris Agreement, each country must prepare, communicate and maintain consistent
nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve, and take internal measures to
mitigate climate change in order to achieve the objectives of such contributions. Each subsequent nationally determined contribution will be a step forward from the current nationally determined contribution and reflect its greatest possible ambitions, reflecting its
shared but differentiated responsibilities as well as the corresponding opportunities in the
light of different national circumstances.
Ukraine is currently in the process of preparing a second nationally determined contribution
to the Paris Agreement. The first nationally determined contribution was submitted in
September 2015.

Addressing climate change covers a number of reforms and measures in various sectors of the
economy – energy, transport, industry, buildings, agriculture and forestry, waste management.
It is important to have a sound analytical base to make informed management decisions.
Thanks to the financial support of the Government of Sweden, the EBRD Project “Support to
the Government of Ukraine for the renewal of the nationally determined contribution” and
the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
worked for a year and a half on modeling greenhouse gas emissions under different economic
scenarios.

Qualitative modeling provides answers to a number of questions. What sources of energy
generation are most economically feasible for development over a period of time? In which
sectors is the greatest potential for emission reductions? How can these or other public policy
instruments affect the economy, individual industries and emissions? That is, such work must
be carried out independently of the processes of international obligations, and in order to
make optimal government decisions.

Based on the simulation results, the following main conclusions can be drawn:
– implementing the commitments already made to the Energy Strategy until 2035, the
Transport Strategy until 2030, commitments under the Energy Community, the National
Waste Management Action Plan and other sectoral plans already adopted, greenhouse gas
emissions in 2030 will be reduced compared to the level of 2015;

-even in the absence of reforms, greenhouse gas emissions will not reach the current level of
contribution to the Paris Agreement (60% of 1990 levels);

– the cost of the 2030 energy efficiency and emission reduction scenario requires more
investment than the business as usual scenario, but its overall economic cost is not higher due
to reduced energy imports, consumption, energy efficiency, operating costs and more;

– The economically and ecologically optimal proposed scenario envisages the share of RES in
the electricity sector in 2050 at 86%.

Read the description of the model scenarios for the 2nd nationally determined contribution of
Ukraine in the next publication.

More details about Paris Agreement: https://cutt.ly/Hog8WIl