The Paris Agreement requires all signatory countries to put forward their best efforts through
nationally determined contributions and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead. This includes requirements that all signatory countries report regularly on their emissions and on
their implementation efforts.

The modeling report for the 2nd nationally determined contribution of Ukraine, developed
within the framework of the EBRD Project “Support to the Government of Ukraine for the
renewal of the nationally determined contribution” contains three main scenarios and eleven
scenarios of sensitivity of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine.

Main scenarios:

1. Scenario 1 / Baseline Scenario is based on the current level of implementation of
current legislation (adopted before 01.09.2019), when the legislation is not
implemented, implemented only partially or with significant delays (for example,
although progress has been made in implementing Energy Efficiency and RES Action
Plans however, the legally established mandatory targets set out in these plans have
not been met).
2. Scenario 2 / The reference scenario is created to obtain a model assessment of timely
and full implementation of all current legislation adopted before 01.09.2019, as well
as draft regulations developed and submitted by 01.09.2019.
3. Scenario 3 / The climate-neutral scenario envisages timely implementation of
legislation (existing and projects) as in Scenario 2, as well as additional innovative
policies, measures and technologies (for example, in the model from 2026 available:
new biotechnologies in navigation and aviation, industry, agriculture, biogas and
electric road freight transport, improved forecasting system and balancing
technologies, from 2030 hydrogen (or other RES gas) in electricity generation and
transport, fuel cells, carbon ultrasonic, bio-ultrasonic, etc. ), which correspond to the
global efforts to prevent the global average temperature from rising by 1.5 °C from
the pre-industrial level. For 2050, an important goal of Scenario 3 is to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions to 1.7 tons of CO2-eq. per capita.

Sensitivity scenarios:

1. The scenario “Optimistic scenario of economic development” (for all main
scenarios) assumes that Ukraine's economy will recover and grow rapidly, in
particular, GDP growth is projected at 40% by 2025 from 2018, according to the
previous Government Program.
2. “The Carbon Tax” scenario envisages a dramatic increase in the CO2 tax (or the
formation of a corresponding market price) in all sectors of the economy from the
current approximately 0.35 eurocents per tonne of CO2 to 15.6 euros in 2030 and 100
euros in 2050.
3. Scenario “New trajectory of greenhouse gas emission limits” provides a linear
trajectory of total greenhouse gas emissions in the country from the values of the main
Scenario 3 in 2035 to net zero in 2070. Thus, reducing the ambition to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 from 1.7 tons of CO2-eq. per capita (Scenario 3) up
to 3.2 tons of CO2-eq. per capita.
4. The scenario “Without new nuclear units” assumes that in Ukraine during 2020-
2050 no new large nuclear unit (1000+ MW) will be built and put into operation,
while the existing ones will function. At the same time, the possibility of construction
and commissioning of small and micro-nuclear units is assumed.

5. The scenario “High capital costs for construction of new nuclear power station
units” assumes that the cost of construction and commissioning of all new large
nuclear units (including units No.3 and No.4 of Khmelnitsky nuclear power station)
will correspond to the cost in the European Union – approximately 5922 euros (or
7,000 US dollars) per kW of installed capacity.
6. The scenario “Extension of the service life of existing nuclear power station units”
provides an opportunity to extend the service life of existing nuclear power station
units for an additional 5-10 years (in addition to the existing or planned extension for
20 years), subject to all possible safety conditions. Thus, the model calculations
assume that the existing nuclear power station units will be able to operate for 55-60
years from the moment of their commissioning.
7. The scenario “Current level of installed capacity utilization coefficient for existing
and new nuclear power station units” assumes that taking into account the domestic
specifics of the structure of electricity generation and demand for electricity, the
company NNEGC "Energoatom" will not be able to achieve technologically possible
installed capacity utilization coefficient levels of 85-90%, and it will fluctuate within
the average for the last 11 years – 76%.
8. The scenario “Additional сapacities of hydroaccumulating power stations”
envisages the potential possibility of putting into operation additional 1.7 GW of
hydroaccumulating power stations’ capacities to those available in the main scenarios.
It is assumed that additional capacity can be built at Kakhovka hydropower station-2,
Dniester and Tashlyk hydropower stations. Additional hydropower capacity is
considered as additional opportunities to increase balancing capacity.
9. The scenario “Lower requirements for balancing capacity” envisages faster
technological progress and more efficient management of the energy system
(including the use of new tools, instruments, etc.), which will reduce the need for
highly maneuverable balancing capacity, and thus reduce the required level of
investment in electricity.
10. The scenario “Limited implementation of waste management measures” envisages
less optimistic rates of implementation of waste management measures than is
generally envisaged in Scenario 3. Accordingly, this will lead to lower greenhouse gas
emission reductions in the "Waste" sectors.
11. The scenario “Impact of the EU carbon duty” envisages an assessment of the
potential introduction by the European Union of a new special carbon duty (carbon
border adjustment mechanism) on imports of goods and services into their territory,
including from the territory of Ukraine. This is due to the fact that the EU fears that
the lack of climate ambitions of its international partners will undermine the EU's
desire to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
12. Combined scenario:
The combined scenario was developed on the basis of basic scenarios with the
addition of sensitivity scenario options that help to minimize investment needs and
optimize them, increase the share of renewable energy, maintain the long-term goal of
climate policy – achieving a carbon-neutral economy by 2070, which corresponds to
the long-term goal of Paris Agreement.
The combined scenario was modeled on the baseline scenario of economic
development, including the conditions of the main Scenarios 2 for the sectors
"Agriculture" and "Land use, land use change and forestry", as well as the options of
sensitivity scenarios, such as:
• Carbon tax
• New trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

• Higher (global) capital investments for the construction of new nuclear power
station units
• Extension of the service life of existing nuclear power station units
• Current installed capacity utilization coefficient level for existing and new nuclear
power station units
• Lower balancing capacity requirements
• Limited implementation of waste management measures

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